The San Francisco Real Estate Rebound: Rising Sales, Renewed Confidence, and What Comes Next
The housing market in San Francisco is showing unmistakable signs of strength and recovery — and for buyers, sellers, and investors alike, now is a time to take notice. Let’s explore the resurgence, the drivers behind it, and what this means for anyone with skin in the game.
Market Snapshot: Rising Sales, Stabilising Prices
After enduring headwinds during the pandemic era, San Francisco is emerging as one of the brighter spots in the Bay Area housing market.
Despite a cooling trend across much of the region, San Francisco recorded a 5 % increase in home sales in early 2025 (from ~2,870 in 2024 to ~3,010 in 2025).
On the affordability front, interestingly, about 11 % of renter households in San Francisco were able to afford a median-priced home in Q2 2025, up from 9.1 % at the end of 2019. San Francisco Standard
Put simply: sales are picking up, price declines have moderated, and affordability — though still challenged — is improving slightly in a relative sense.
Why the Rebound? Key Drivers
Several dynamics are fueling San Francisco’s upward trajectory right now:
1. Tech and AI resurgence
The city is reclaiming its role as a tech hub, particularly in AI and innovation. That influx brings high-earning professionals, many of whom seek housing in and around the city. This has essential knock-on effects for demand in the housing market.
2. Tight supply, strong demand
Even with higher interest rates and broader market softness, San Francisco’s housing supply remains constrained. The city still wrestles with a significant housing shortage, which provides some floor under values.
3. Fewer price cuts — a sign of seller confidence
In many U.S. metros, sellers have been forced to reduce asking prices. In San Francisco, only ~12 % of listings had price cuts in August — much lower than the national average of ~17 %. That suggests a market where sellers feel they can remain firm.
4. Single-family homes leading the way
While condo and multifamily segments remain patchy, the single-family home market is showing more robust momentum — fewer price reductions, more competition among buyers.
Winning Strategies for Buyers, Sellers & Investors
If you’re involved in the San Francisco real estate market (or considering entering it), here are some practical takeaways:
For Sellers:
With lower rates of price cuts, you may be able to list at or slightly above market and still attract meaningful interest — especially for single-family homes in desirable neighborhoods.
Highlight how demand is trending upward and inventory remains tight — these are strong selling points.
Time your listing carefully: slower inventory release might create more urgency among buyers.
For Buyers:
Although the market is recovering, pricing is still more favorable than peak pandemic or late-2021 levels. You may have room to negotiate — especially on condos or less-desirable locations.
Focus on fundamentals: supply constraints and high-earnings in-migration are strong tailwinds.
Keep an eye on interest rates and total cost of ownership; the market is less forgiving of over-leveraging.
Explore neighborhoods where growth seems strongest (e.g., single-family home districts, near transit, or near tech hubs).
For Investors:
Consider the rental market too: rising rents driven by tech hiring may increase yield potential.
Be selective about property type: multifamily/condo stocks may still lag, while detached homes often lead the recovery.
Monitor zoning developments and office-to-residential conversion legislation — these may unlock upside in under-appreciated assets. Axios
Things to Watch (Risks & Caveats)
While the rebound is real, it’s not without risks:
San Francisco’s recovery remains uneven — downtown, commercial-heavy areas with high office vacancy rates may lag.
Affordability remains a long-term concern. Even with improvements, many households are priced out of ownership.
External shocks (interest rate hikes, tech sector pullback, job losses) could dampen momentum.
Neighborhoods vary widely — micro-market dynamics matter a lot more than macro headlines.
Bottom Line
San Francisco’s real estate market is showing clear signs of rebound — with rising sales volumes, increased competition, stabilising prices, and renewed buyer/seller confidence. The comeback is very much in motion thanks to tech/AI growth, constrained housing supply, and improved affordability margins.
If you’re aligning your real estate strategy with current momentum, acting proactively could position you well — whether you’re buying, selling, or investing. But remember: local nuance matters. Focus on neighborhood fundamentals, property type, and long-term structural drivers. Call Nona if you have any questions.